Gaussian

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1363806457729343488 The 95% CI for the 94% number is 73 to 99, and is based on two events. (View Post)

Yes if they're going up faster than the vaccinations are bringing down the hospitalisations per case. Especially if they were to accelerate further. We're so close to getting out of this. Let's not k… (View Post)

When the supplies are available, I'm sure they'll do everything they can to get them into arms as quickly as possible. Vaccinations in Wales and Scotland in the last week wouldn't have halved without… (View Post)

The decoupling will be gradual. At the moment we've vaccinated something like 50% worth of hospitalisations, at whatever efficacy a single dose of Pfizer or AZ provides, and of course the vaccines ta… (View Post)

All depends on how the increase in R from opening up and the decrease from the vaccines balance out. (View Post)