That's a good succinct way of putting it. Also, in the end it means more economic damage rather than less, due to absence, health care costs, and having to apply measures for longer to get back … (View Post)

All it means is that the original tiers were too low. Which is why they panicked into a national lockdown when things got out of hand. Putting areas into higher tiers more promptly and with consisten… (View Post)

People still refusing to understand that it's primarily the growth rate rather than the current level of cases that needs to determine the countermeasures. Waiting a couple more weeks until the … (View Post)

? Last 7 days per 100,000: Wales 191.4 Scotland 135 Northern Ireland 175.4 England 230.3 Whole pandemic: Wales 2,341.6 Scotland 1,648.8 Northern Ireland 2,647.9 England 2,353.6 From https://coronavir… (View Post)

Okay, let me try a slightly different tack. Two coins, hundred throws each. For each one, the expected heads is 50. But due to random variation, when doing hundred throws each and then picking out th… (View Post)