But you also know BBBG is less likely than GGGB, despite them being equally likely before the test. Alternatively, if you assign the tested apple as "apple 1" then it works as Barty suggest… (View Post)

Final comment on apples: https://xkcd.com/356 (View Post)

The two scenarios are different. In one, you have information about the bag as a whole. In the other, you have information about a specific apple. I ran through all the possibilities in the other thr… (View Post)

First one is easy. There were 8 ways to pick 3 but one scenario (all bad) has been eliminated. Leaves 12 good choices out of 21 permutations = 57% Second one is slightly longer (maybe unnecessarily) … (View Post)

Getting a good one at random changes the probability distribution of the whole set. If the first random choice is good it becomes more likely that there were 3 or 4 good ones to start with. I'll run … (View Post)