That and the huge wave of immigrants from the A10 member states post-2004. The government estimated that 13,000 would come, and at least three or four million turned up. One day politicians will lear… (View Post)

indeed - the reason I highlighted it was not that it represents the academic consensus (there isn't one) but because it has permeated our political debate, with the Chancellor referencing it sev… (View Post)

No of course we can't KNOW - that's the nature of social sciences, where there are rarely if ever precise counter-factuals. If there were, economists, sociologists, etc., could be replaced … (View Post)

But there are also countervailing benefits and offsetting factors (such as the end of our large net contributions, the ability to do trade deals with third parties and the diversion of EU trade eithe… (View Post)

I should say that in the last few decades I have analysed many economic and econometric studies professionally (and a couple personally - I'm odd like that) and this was definitely in the highes… (View Post)