Empirically, factor substitutability is very low - most studies I've seen put it at 0.15 or 0.2. Most jobs cannot be substituted with machines yet, and that was even more the case in 2022. What has c… (View Post)

Not just an American view - many Europeans think it too. Of course there is the usual irritating and fatuous American view of "Europe" as one place, instead of three dozen, and also that GD… (View Post)

Trump's majorities in Congress are tiny, the tariffs are deeply unpopular and his Congressional management is terrible so I don't see them getting through. It's the Supreme Court or his main economic… (View Post)

By far the best solution is to let them work and sort out their own accommodation, like all other functioning adults. That keeps them off the streets and increases GDP and tax revenue. If they can't … (View Post)

But at the top rates, the distortion is reversed, because the 39.35% dividend tax, when added to 25% corporate tax, is higher than the 47% income tax+NI. So it's complicated. There's a very strong ar… (View Post)