FF43
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Re: Punters think we will have a ceasefire by the end of April but Polymarket and others might soon lose
I don't think we should fetishise international law. It should serve a purpose. But if you deny international law has any purpose, you will undermine possible realpolitik, which is the pursuit a… (View Post)2 -
Re: Punters think we will have a ceasefire by the end of April but Polymarket and others might soon lose
Reasoned article on why Trump's adventures in Iran have made stopping Iran getting nuclear weapons more, not less, difficult. https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/twice-bombed-still-nuclear-the-lim… (View Post)2 -
Re: Punters think we will have a ceasefire by the end of April but Polymarket and others might soon lose
I think the two things are somewhat correlated. If you dismiss international law as of no concern, generally you don't have a clue about what works either. (View Post)1 -
Re: Punters think we will have a ceasefire by the end of April but Polymarket and others might soon lose
Apart from anything else, surely leaders would think twice about assassinating other countries' leaders, in case it happens to them too? The Elizabeth I versus Mary scenario. (View Post)1 -
Re: Punters think we will have a ceasefire by the end of April but Polymarket and others might soon lose
The legal distinction is massive between responding to actual missile strikes against your territory and other third parties versus unprovoked attacks on other countries to assassinate their leaders.… (View Post)4