The key question for me is: is it a) a fully stochastic model, e.g. whereby vaccine effectiveness follows (say) a Normal distribution with mean 85% and SD of 5%, and the ranges are arrived at by samp… (View Post)

Fair enough. My day job is almost entirely based on A (with some of B thrown in to answer side questions, on occasion). I am therefore looking at what output and other information is available, and i… (View Post)

Just adding some tonal balance to this debate by saying I absolutely agree with this, although in their defence it appears that it also isn't in the modellers' remit, so it may be someone else's faul… (View Post)

That's not how the models work (to my understanding). You feed in a set of inputs, which includes a particular policy decision, like Do Nothing, or Impose Lockdown. The model spits out a set of proba… (View Post)

You and Max keep using the word "scenarios" wrong (or at least in a sense I have never seen it used, in modelling terms). The "scenarios" are things like: Do Nothing, Impose Some … (View Post)