Endillion
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Re: Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Probably, but "coup" implies he gains something out of any change in administration, rather than, as is more likely, pure spite. (View Post)2 -
Re: LAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com
That over 800k is "per week", not "per day", unless I'm missing something? (View Post)1 -
Re: Starmer has better than a 13.9% chance of being next PM – politicalbetting.com
Was that test set before, during or after the pandemic-induced lockdowns? I would argue that my answer is correct now, but "Probably False" was correct up to March 2021. (View Post)1 -
Re: Starmer has better than a 13.9% chance of being next PM – politicalbetting.com
Insufficient data. If it was 1% five years ago, it would now be 1.74%. (View Post)1 -
Re: Starmer has better than a 13.9% chance of being next PM – politicalbetting.com
Under A, he loses if he fails both times, which has a probability of 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.5625. So P(A, Win) = 0.4375. Under B, his odds are 50:50. So, he should pick B. (View Post)4