It's difficult to overstate the bubble effect of local Facebooks groups. I live in a hotbed of cycling, coffee and pro-Palestinian sentiment and even my FB group if full of people who are likely… (View Post)

Now we have CROSSOVER, this election could go two ways: 1) Tory total collapse, inefficient right wing vote, LD loyal opposition 2) Reform vote never materialises, Labour bumps back up to mid-40s, To… (View Post)

Remember that SKS approval rating is not a function of approval for the other leaders, while Labour's vote share is a function of support for other parties. It's possible that the absolute … (View Post)

Wtf is that story by Guido. Even I've had a more complicated love life than Starmer, and I've been blessed with some long, stable relationships. Consider the divorce rate. Starmer must be a… (View Post)

I would fix it as a percentage of GDP, like defence. 15%? It's 11% at the moment in the UK, 12% in France, 13% in Germany, 17% in the US. That would focus minds on what to do with fixed resource… (View Post)