Just some counter-points: 1) The employment rate is very nearly the highest it has ever been (16-64), so whatever effect high effective marginal tax rates isn't showing up there 2) The proportio… (View Post)

Yes, fair enough. Though they have also revised down the growth achieved by Sunak in Q2 (again), and it looks like they were optimistic throughout with their initial forecasts with the exception of Q… (View Post)

Just for my fun model - where do you think the Reform vote would come from for a 34% share? I'm assuming 1/3rd from the Tories, 1/3rd from Labour and 1/3rd from non-voters. But I also kinda thin… (View Post)

No. I just think that's more likely than Reform winning a majority with a low 30s result. Labour's vote was suppressed for a number of reasons - Gaza, inevitable victory - things that would… (View Post)

.....eh? I don't recall anything like that at all. Fwiw, I stated that I thought the Walz nomination would be peak Harris, and people were quite open to that idea. And there was a broad consensu… (View Post)