Scotland was SNP 56 of 59 seats on a quasi-majority of the vote in the era before Unionist tactical voting. That's the kind of result one can predict pretty well without an intricate regression … (View Post)

My specific concerns this time are that it is easier to extrapolate a UNS-type number (i.e. relying on errors cancelling each other out, each way) when the overall two-party swing is around 1% than w… (View Post)

How I think about it is that UNS works - in so far as it does - by hoping the errors are similar each way across a pretty smooth distribution of seat majorities in the critical area for seats' c… (View Post)

Which side was which? (View Post)

Shortly there will be an election, in which the Lib Dems will become the opposition. (View Post)