So, uniform and proportional swing. Each is just a model that is hard to reconcile with theories of individual decision making. Uniform swing requires us to believe that in each district, the number … (View Post)

If they're smart, how come some idiot is agitating in their favour? (View Post)

Greens are probably driven by pandering to Muslim voters, bitter Corbynites, and a handful of Tory seats where they are the local opposition. Hard to see these persisting past 2024 in seats they don&… (View Post)

I think, after one or two elections, a Lib Dem party that tries to be centre-right would get kicked out by the real thing. There are still 35-40% voting Tory or Reform, they're just profoundly s… (View Post)

Lib to Lab was coupled with a genuine shift in European politics towards a different economic and social model. Reform, like many of the anti-immigration parties, are looking for a reversion or harde… (View Post)