Don't forget the 2015 rumour that LDs were going to win Maidstone and the Weald. (View Post)

If 2017 was the Herdson election eve, 2019 is the herds-off election eve, looking at those divergent polls. Really sorry about that one. (View Post)

PB keeps getting better after 15 years, amazingly, even though the election has been kind of meh as a betting event, with so much Butlerian indeterminancy around what way results might look. And the … (View Post)

There are a lot fewer anti-Tory tactical votes if it is 45/36. (View Post)

That's not in dispute; turnout is always higher among 65+. The only thing that matters is the elasticity of that turnout with regard to weather. If 65+ are _disproportionately_ likely to vote in… (View Post)