EPG

Time to put data over emotions. PB Tories are returning to the party with unbeatable reasons like "too good for state schools" and "my wife". No campaign can beat this trend. Bett… (View Post)

I think that one in particular is inexplicable. (View Post)

Scotland was SNP 56 of 59 seats on a quasi-majority of the vote in the era before Unionist tactical voting. That's the kind of result one can predict pretty well without an intricate regression model. (View Post)

My specific concerns this time are that it is easier to extrapolate a UNS-type number (i.e. relying on errors cancelling each other out, each way) when the overall two-party swing is around 1% than w… (View Post)

How I think about it is that UNS works - in so far as it does - by hoping the errors are similar each way across a pretty smooth distribution of seat majorities in the critical area for seats' changi… (View Post)