On the contrary, you must, because almost every seat they can gain will be from the Conservatives, which isn't true of Reform. Labour and Green people will tactically vote LD to beat the Conserv… (View Post)

They will be representing the left-of-centre electors in those seats, plus a large transitory anti-government vote. The right-of-centre electors will still mostly be voting Tory and Refuk. (View Post)

Tory MPs of course wanted Sunak over Truss. Sadly we'll never know the counterfactual of a PM Sunak, but I guess we are assuming it would have worked out really well. (View Post)

There should be little doubt that Ukip 2015 absorbed the BNP 2010 vote. Many of their very largest swings were in areas which had previously had BNP votes in the 3-6k range. But I wouldn't overe… (View Post)

The difference being approximately that between leads of six and fifteen points. (View Post)