EPG

Interesting hypothesis. The local elections might have data to confirm whether it's evidenced so far, or not. (View Post)

Have there been boundary changes? I think this otherwise needs quite a deep Tory increase in majority to be a win. And this is not the type of urban seat where the Lab voters boycott over Gaza. (View Post)

He thinks a 42-31 lead means NOM? Respectfully, that can't be Curtice's considered opinion. Even under UNS, but more importantly, Labour will not be taking 85% in random Islamic / student districts o… (View Post)

I've no real local expertise, mainly a lot of reading. The main factor this time is the modest changes to the boundaries - the underlying political situation remaining much more stable. In fact Hanna… (View Post)

I'm not sure I would favour the SDLP to hold Foyle over SF, in an election where a Brexit choice is off the table. In Belfast South, they have incumbency on their side, even though Alliance won most … (View Post)