EPG

There's no one clear answer. Two hints are firstly that the USA seems to recover quickly from periods of low growth, whereas when European countries start growing again, it's from a permanently lower… (View Post)

So, uniform and proportional swing. Each is just a model that is hard to reconcile with theories of individual decision making. Uniform swing requires us to believe that in each district, the number … (View Post)

If they're smart, how come some idiot is agitating in their favour? (View Post)

Greens are probably driven by pandering to Muslim voters, bitter Corbynites, and a handful of Tory seats where they are the local opposition. Hard to see these persisting past 2024 in seats they don'… (View Post)

I think, after one or two elections, a Lib Dem party that tries to be centre-right would get kicked out by the real thing. There are still 35-40% voting Tory or Reform, they're just profoundly split. (View Post)