There's no one clear answer. Two hints are firstly that the USA seems to recover quickly from periods of low growth, whereas when European countries start growing again, it's from a permane… (View Post)

So, uniform and proportional swing. Each is just a model that is hard to reconcile with theories of individual decision making. Uniform swing requires us to believe that in each district, the number … (View Post)

If they're smart, how come some idiot is agitating in their favour? (View Post)

Greens are probably driven by pandering to Muslim voters, bitter Corbynites, and a handful of Tory seats where they are the local opposition. Hard to see these persisting past 2024 in seats they don&… (View Post)

I think, after one or two elections, a Lib Dem party that tries to be centre-right would get kicked out by the real thing. There are still 35-40% voting Tory or Reform, they're just profoundly s… (View Post)