The purely frequentist analysis makes more sense at the start of a parliamentary term when we don't know anything about popularity in 4-5 years' time. Even taking that starting point, the m… (View Post)

Try opening it with a corkscrew next time. (View Post)

This is an important point. The most honest general election campaign in the last ten years was TMay in 2017, and it was also the campaign that did its party the most damage - with the possible excep… (View Post)

The Tories and LDs were doing a lot better. The ensuing maelstrom, followed by the rise of patrician centrist Sunak, has shredded a lot of Tory votes but also taken the wind very much out of LD sails… (View Post)

The "consent" to roads policy is Council elections. Just like the "consent" to EU law was national and European elections. Come on. If elections don't count as consent, democ… (View Post)