Yup I wouldn't have been backing Starmer not being PM at next election at anything under 10/1 at this point in the electoral cycle. (View Post)

Sorry to talk about political betting, but I accidentally clicked on the next Lib Dem leader market... is there something I'm missing? While obv Daisy Cooper would be a strong favourite if a lea… (View Post)

The most recent came out on 2nd October with fieldwork 20-29 September. So I would guess similar sorts of dates. I'm not sure though. If you're happy not to trade if it goes wrong and have … (View Post)

Anecdotely I've experienced the same. The ones I know "should" be leaning Badenoch too but aren't, really. On the publicly available evidence these prices are wrong and this shoul… (View Post)

It would be a possible explanation, but given the hilariously bad record of political markets so far there's no particular reason to believe this time it's different. Not sure about everyon… (View Post)