In fairness to the editors, OGH has stepped down, TSE is off sick and Robert lives in another timezone. It's not surprising if we have to talk amongst ourselves for a little longer than usual. (View Post)

Hm. A bit. But the circumstances are very different. That said, the average Trump voter is a long way from the stereotype of the Jan 6th nutter. It probably is the case that the average Trump voter t… (View Post)

I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily t… (View Post)

On thread - ordinarily, in the UK, you get quite good odds on Republican candidates: the UK tends not to understand the attraction of, and therefore underestimate, the chances of a republican victory… (View Post)

Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally … (View Post)