I think NATO membership would be extremely likely if post war Russia remained any kind of immediate threat. After all, NATO membership was given to the Federal Republic of Germany even though they di… (View Post)

That is not strictly speaking true: in April 1941, at the signing of the Soviet-Japanese neutrality pact, Stalin famously declared "we too are Asiatic". The historical struggle in nineteent… (View Post)

Perhaps a little waspish. this is a betting site and we explore things from the point of view of the probabilities. FWIW I have earned my modest living through analyzing the politics, economics and b… (View Post)

Sunk cost for the Putin regime, yes. However the price of the next hundred thousand or two hundred thousand, or three... is what many others in Moscow are now considering. There are less than 9 milli… (View Post)

"2014 borders". I mean the borders before the first Russian invasion. I.e. the borders from 1991-2014 will be restored. I am forecasting a complete defeat for Putin. (View Post)