Perhaps a little waspish. this is a betting site and we explore things from the point of view of the probabilities. FWIW I have earned my modest living through analyzing the politics, economics and b… (View Post)

Sunk cost for the Putin regime, yes. However the price of the next hundred thousand or two hundred thousand, or three... is what many others in Moscow are now considering. There are less than 9 milli… (View Post)

"2014 borders". I mean the borders before the first Russian invasion. I.e. the borders from 1991-2014 will be restored. I am forecasting a complete defeat for Putin. (View Post)

Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim). I think people in the West are missing something that is growi… (View Post)

Head vabariigi iseseisvuspäeva! Happy Estonian Independence Day! It is one year since I stood outside the Estonian Parliament for the traditional raising of the national flag from Tall Hermann tower.… (View Post)