The problem is that this election may in fact be only the first episode in a longer term realignment. The Tories will get nowhere if they can only wave fictitious apocalypses in the air. The failure … (View Post)

Sunak is not the reason for the Tory defeat. Whatever his weaknesses he is just the fall guy. The damage was done by the fall of Johnson and the disastrous Truss weeks. The polling collapsed then, an… (View Post)

Yes. Nils was of course Estonian, and I spent many happy, and quite bibulous, hours at the feet of the master. I did talk to John Hodson and Cato quite regularly, But Nils was one of the greats, I st… (View Post)

In which case the Lib Dems are going to have a perfect stick to beat Labour over the head with for the next five years. (View Post)

Well that´s a bit glib. ;-) There are several problems, not least the age of the data and the contrast with the headline poll numbers and trends. There is also the very narrow gap in several constitu… (View Post)