In thinking about the prospects for limiting the spread by "social distancing," it's worth bearing in mind some of the figures from the WHO report on China: (1) In Guangdong province, … (View Post)

Well, there is an old anti-malarial drug, which is cheap and safe, and which seems to be one of the two spoken of as most promising in trials in China. For malaria, it is used for both prophylaxis an… (View Post)

Yes, there's no dispute about that. But if people are quoting actual mortality rates (i.e. percentages) they should be aware that there's a possibility they are significantly overestimated … (View Post)

That would require that only a small percentage of the population got it, which isn't the assumption. And as I just pointed out, it's not clear that intensive care actually saves many lives… (View Post)

I think to get anything useful out of these figures you'd need to separate out imported cases for a start, which until a few days ago were accounting for nearly all the new cases in the UK. But … (View Post)