Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%. Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, cou… (View Post)

I thought that sentence was going to end with something about Rohypnol! (View Post)

Isn't part of the point that Trump can't afford for there to be even a single exception? Of the six states where 538 has the Biden-Trump difference between 0 and 5.5 points, assuming Biden … (View Post)

Given the Brexit Party's reliance on support from the elderly, I wonder whether he has really thought this through. Normally politicians try to bribe their supporters, not kill them. (View Post)

He means "worse than the donkeys in the Tory party leadership expected". Of course he has to pretend that no one else expected it either, but everyone knows it's not true. (View Post)