I think the Selzer poll does put a big question mark over a lot of the judgments based on "consensus polling". Even if it's what we would normally call an outlier (i.e. a one-in-twenty… (View Post)

Whether or not people think the Selzer poll suffers from a systematic error, it's a significant change (+3 from -4) from the result from the same pollster nearly 8 weeks ago. Suggests the campai… (View Post)

"We have painting evidence ...". Biblical scholars, eat your hearts out! (Particularly as they are non-vegan.) (View Post)

I suppose that whatever the average, both candidates will have support among voters with a range of propensity to vote. And it will be different low-propensity groups for the different candidates. Wh… (View Post)

True, but the leads are so tiny that to a good approximation all those except Arizona might as well be 50-50. I haven't checked my sums, but I think the other 6 states have 82 EC votes between t… (View Post)