Also, as with other hyper-optimistic modelling, this one comes out with an extremely low estimate of the fatality rate - 0.2%. Given that 0.26% of the whole population of New York City has already di… (View Post)

Trust a politician to say "it's unlikely big lavish international holidays will be possible" when he means "foreign holidays won't be possible". (View Post)

The BBC reports it like this: He says he wants it to be safe for those employees, so calls on people to “avoid public transport if at all possible”, adding: “We must and will maintain social distanci… (View Post)

You have to laugh at the innumeracy of journalists sometimes. This from the BBC: "At 0.5% per 100,000 people, the death rate in Slovakia is the lowest in the EU ..." (View Post)

But of course the Monte Carlo method isn't a matter of averaging multiple "guesses". Mathematical modelling isn't the same as "guessing". (View Post)