There have been plenty of academic studies giving various answers. But it really does depend on how much people modify their behaviour - or are forced to modify it. In China the outbreak was reversed… (View Post)

We may not know with reliability how many cases there are, but we do know that on the official figures the daily number of new cases in China outside Hubei province is now only 6% of what it was at t… (View Post)

Mike Surely you should have said "if the other measures don’t have the loony 78 year old Socialist on top"? No point trying to influence the betting if you don't give it your all. (View Post)

Quite. There would be more justification in saying the people at YouGov don't even know whether Attlee is still alive... (View Post)

I think Mr Smithson is trying to influence the betting markets by using that rather knobbly photo of Sir Keir. Here is a perfectly neutral picture of the dreamboat hunk: (View Post)