Classed as "lean" rather than "likely." "Go back to your constituency and fight for survival"? (View Post)

Surely it's not "based on" an 11-point lead. That comes out of the model. The lead in this model in 2017 was out of kilter with conventional polls, wasn't it? Now it's very m… (View Post)

Is an "absolute cast iron guarantee" stronger or weaker than saying "I'd rather be dead in a ditch"? Doesn't Johnson now need to say something like "I'd rather… (View Post)

That's not really relevant. I'm not trying to make a projection. I'm simply suggesting people shouldn't be confident that the same thing as 2017 won't happen again - because … (View Post)

On any objective view, of course it is an outlier. In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one poin… (View Post)