Well of course it is. I swear with at least half of these models that the people creating them begin with their personal assumptions - that masks and social distancing are a public health essential t… (View Post)

To take a wild guess, has somebody (possibly a member of ISAGE) picked a measure with a fantastically wide confidence interval, so that they can catastrophise over one of the extreme limits in order … (View Post)

The problem with that argument is that, if things go unexpectedly well, the modellers will announce in triumph that it would've been a catastrophe if the Government hadn't followed their advice. They… (View Post)

July 19th: cases still going up, models say everyone will die if nightclubs open, stall for another four weeks, sorry August 16th: almost time for the schools to open, new models say everyone will di… (View Post)

Well, we shall see. The obvious risk is that the new variant gradually spreads through the country over the next few weeks - at a low level in many places, to be sure, with the lovely vaccines shield… (View Post)