Completely agreed. If this were a routine by-election caused for any other reason, then I'd be expecting Reform to win comfortably. But this? Burnham will win, and win big. (View Post)

Or Number 10 has no authority left. (View Post)

Disagreed. Voters are on a spectrum and there will be some voters pissed off with Starmer, wanting change and willing to vote Reform in the locals to express that . . . who are also willing to vote B… (View Post)

I can not think of any by election in history which has been so implicity a by election where if the governing party candidate wins, it will effectively oust the governing PM. All models go out the w… (View Post)

I think Burnham will easily beat Reform under the circumstances. Would people in the by election want to kick out Starmer and get a local leader as PM? That is the way it will be phrased and it will … (View Post)