I agree. The life expectancy of an average male American male aged 77 is 8.7 years i.e. 100 months. It's 10 months until the election so that suggest (on a linear basis) a 10% chance that Trump … (View Post)

Trump has underperformed the polls in Iowa and NH. There are people telling pollsters that they are voting Trump but in the secret ballot they don't. Perhaps husband/wife split votes where the w… (View Post)

Newsom winning PreditIt 6%, Betfair 4% so no. Michelle winning PreditIt zero, Betfair 5% so yes. Biden winning PreditIt 47%, Betfair 33% Big difference! Trump winning PreditIt 47%, Betfair 47% (View Post)

Desperate stuff! He actually looks desperate with his head to one side, and a weak grin. (View Post)

So it's toy money versus real money? I wonder how good PredictIt is at predicting? It is embroiled in a legal battle at the moment and not opening any new markets. (View Post)