There are lots of ways to do time series averages, all with their own advantages and weaknesses. My approach would be to construct a time-varying average for each methodology, and then average the re… (View Post)

I use an exponential moving average of polls with smoothing factor of 0.1to iron out MOEs and fade over time. Over the last 6 months it looks like this. It looks flat to me recently. (View Post)

The momentum has been with Labour since the 2019 GE. There is a Truss blip but, standing back, the Tory decline and Labour accent is relentless. (View Post)

I asked CHATGBT "Why doesn't England already teach Maths to age 18 like most of the countries that are economically outcompeting it? It replied: The educational systems of different countri… (View Post)

My 12 year old grandson has an amazing grasp of mathematical abstractions that I didn't encounter until A level. But it's not for everyone. It's demotivating and unproductive for many.… (View Post)