You're right! Forget everything I've said. Sorry about that :( (View Post)

On reflection I think you are right. In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points. My revised guess is: Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 3… (View Post)

I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories. My current best guess, looking at the relative shares… (View Post)

That's a snapshot now. So not very useful. What can we project? I think we can project Reform taking more share from Labour. It has the appeal and momentum and is copying the LDs approach to building… (View Post)

Yes - but it doesn't increase LibDem and Green seats significantly. Seat losses by the Conservatives are limited to only 31 because of some seat gains from Labour but big losses to Reform. Electoral … (View Post)