The MRP modelling technique is based on sampling the voting preferences of a large number of demographic groups and then applying the result to the demographics of each constituency. It is a model. M… (View Post)

Thanks Aaron. The authentic nitty gritty of hard campaigning! I have you down as a 3,000 majority Con/Lab/LD/BXP 49/42/7/1 (View Post)

Tories running out of steam a bit as BXP squeezed hard and Labour on the move. Adding Survation and ICM gives Con Lab LD BXP Green PC SNP Total England 316 191 25 0 1 0 0 533 Wales 16 20 1 0 0 4 0 40… (View Post)

We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD City and Westminster Poll 39/26/33 Model 50/30/20 Chelsea and Fulham Poll 48/24/25 Model 56/24/20 Hendon Poll 51/33/12 M… (View Post)

I know about the Grimsby seat specific polling. That is why I have reduced the tactical voting for Labour by BXP supporters to zero, even though many BXP supporters are ex-Labour. My model still show… (View Post)