I don't think Sunak will be in the run off. If Hunt and Badenhoch supporters go to Mordaunt and Zahawi and Braverman's go to Truss it will be Mordaunt and Truss. (View Post)

Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries). (View Post)

Using Electoral Calculus, the new boundaries will make little difference to the overall Labour majority. On my EMA of latest polls, Labour are two short of an overall majority on current boundaries a… (View Post)

It feels very much like STV! They could do it in one go using preference voting but that would eliminate the games playing and where's the fun in that? (View Post)

It may change radically as candidates drop out and transfer their support. I don't know the candidates well enough to predict who each will support. I guess it is a mix of friendship/enmity, hop… (View Post)