The typical Tory voter round here seems to be far more upset with the Government than with the local LibDem Council. Obviously the Tory activists complain about the Council but it doesn't seem t… (View Post)

"They" is the obvious pronoun for God. There's three of them. (View Post)

Here it is https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1132735/Letter_from_Sir_Laurie_Magnus_to_the_Prime_Minister__29_January_2023.pdf (View Post)

There are lots of ways to do time series averages, all with their own advantages and weaknesses. My approach would be to construct a time-varying average for each methodology, and then average the re… (View Post)

I use an exponential moving average of polls with smoothing factor of 0.1to iron out MOEs and fade over time. Over the last 6 months it looks like this. It looks flat to me recently. (View Post)