Here is the detail with assumptions etc at the bottom of the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing Not much change (View Post)

Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persi… (View Post)

My predicted LD seats in England with shares (View Post)

She does want another vote. A big one for a LibDem majority. If she got that (whisper -she won't) then there would have been a really massive shift of opinion in the country and she would have t… (View Post)

The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention. (View Post)