You have to take a seven day moving average to allow for the weekly cycle. The seven day moving average of cases seems to be peaking. R for cases is currently 1.22 and dropping by about 0.04 per day. (View Post)

There's been a ferocious storm here with massive thunder and lightening. Car alarms going off and the street outside is a river. (View Post)

Yes - Apologies. I can only blame the two pints of Pimms I have just consumed at the Barnes Summer Festival and the rush to analyse the latest 4pm numbers. Sorry. (View Post)

d2C/dT2 (2nd differential of growth of cases) is now -0.01. Putting that in my simple model gives: Peak 7 day average of cases of 55K on 5th August Peak deaths at 2,050 on 13th August. For what it�… (View Post)

You're right. I've retuned it and added today's data. Cases flatten over the next ten days and don't get down to 10,000 a day until the end of July. Admissions climb to a peak of … (View Post)