OK @Philip_Thompson I've picked the first in your list - Bristol North West. 2017 Con 22,639 Lab 27,400 Valid voters 54,096 Con share 40.1% ie. -3.4% of 2017, or 92% of 2017 Lab share 30.2% (inc… (View Post)

"Let's say it was won by the Tories". Labour are not going to win any seats off the Tories BXP or no BXP. BXP makes no difference. (View Post)

Con would need a lead over Labour of about 14% to get a 50 majority. Lab would need a lead over Con of about 18% to get a 50 majority. This assumes current shares for SNP and LDs. The hurdle is the r… (View Post)

Here is a very simple thought experiment. Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency. Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote… (View Post)

In my model, I have Finchley, Kensington and Wimbledon as Tory seats - in line with these constituency polls. But you can bet your bottom dollar the LibDems are going to use these polls over the next… (View Post)