Con would need a lead over Labour of about 14% to get a 50 majority. Lab would need a lead over Con of about 18% to get a 50 majority. This assumes current shares for SNP and LDs. The hurdle is the r… (View Post)

Here is a very simple thought experiment. Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency. Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote… (View Post)

In my model, I have Finchley, Kensington and Wimbledon as Tory seats - in line with these constituency polls. But you can bet your bottom dollar the LibDems are going to use these polls over the next… (View Post)

Each poll has a 10% weight as it enters the calculations and decays exponentially at a 90% rate i.e. this poll will decay to 9% weight when another comes in and then to 8.1% weight and so on. It damp… (View Post)

After latest Opinium Con/lab/LD 323/222/32 (View Post)