No - that's not right. It couldn't just as easily be going up if you are talking probabilities. Philip is correct. It is evidence. It might not be statistically significant at the 95% level… (View Post)

A serious reasoning error is to assume that if there is no data, the prior probability of an event or state (in a Bayesian sense) is 50/50 until data comes available. The prior can be based on reason… (View Post)

He was right though. It was funny and I did eventually laugh. About five years later I came home late one night totally pissed and vomited out of the rear bedroom window onto his motorbike parked bel… (View Post)

I remember the glue experience and peeling it off my fingers. When I was about 12, I designed my own aircraft about 18" long and constructed it with balsa wood and that glue, plus a semitranspar… (View Post)

It's not just better together though. There are great benefits in independence (agility to tackle unexpected problems and opportunities, the emotional benefit of sovereignty/freedom) as we have … (View Post)