Each poll has a 10% weight as it enters the calculations and decays exponentially at a 90% rate i.e. this poll will decay to 9% weight when another comes in and then to 8.1% weight and so on. It damp… (View Post)

After latest Opinium Con/lab/LD 323/222/32 (View Post)

I have Reading East as a Tory gain. My model Con/Lab/LD/BXP 39/38/14/6 MRP 33/28/22/7 (View Post)

It is against my political interests to promote the possibility of a hung parliament. As a LibDem I should be spinning why the Tories are going to get a large majority to encourage Tory Remainers to … (View Post)

It would be nice to do both of course. They are not mutually exclusive. (View Post)