The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention. (View Post)

The MRP modelling technique is based on sampling the voting preferences of a large number of demographic groups and then applying the result to the demographics of each constituency. It is a model. M… (View Post)

Thanks Aaron. The authentic nitty gritty of hard campaigning! I have you down as a 3,000 majority Con/Lab/LD/BXP 49/42/7/1 (View Post)

Tories running out of steam a bit as BXP squeezed hard and Labour on the move. Adding Survation and ICM gives Con Lab LD BXP Green PC SNP Total England 316 191 25 0 1 0 0 533 Wales 16 20 1 0 0 4 0 40… (View Post)

We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD City and Westminster Poll 39/26/33 Model 50/30/20 Chelsea and Fulham Poll 48/24/25 Model 56/24/20 Hendon Poll 51/33/12 M… (View Post)