So we are just waiting for the DeKalb early vote of 170,000 which should be about 85/15 Dem/Rep. That would be decisive. I think I'll wait up for that, but it means a third Talisker and a thick … (View Post)

With 16% counted We don't know the mix so hard to interpret. The needle is a better indicator. (View Post)

No - that's not right. It couldn't just as easily be going up if you are talking probabilities. Philip is correct. It is evidence. It might not be statistically significant at the 95% level… (View Post)

A serious reasoning error is to assume that if there is no data, the prior probability of an event or state (in a Bayesian sense) is 50/50 until data comes available. The prior can be based on reason… (View Post)

He was right though. It was funny and I did eventually laugh. About five years later I came home late one night totally pissed and vomited out of the rear bedroom window onto his motorbike parked bel… (View Post)