Thanks Aaron. The authentic nitty gritty of hard campaigning! I have you down as a 3,000 majority Con/Lab/LD/BXP 49/42/7/1 (View Post)

Tories running out of steam a bit as BXP squeezed hard and Labour on the move. Adding Survation and ICM gives Con Lab LD BXP Green PC SNP Total England 316 191 25 0 1 0 0 533 Wales 16 20 1 0 0 4 0 40… (View Post)

We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD City and Westminster Poll 39/26/33 Model 50/30/20 Chelsea and Fulham Poll 48/24/25 Model 56/24/20 Hendon Poll 51/33/12 M… (View Post)

I know about the Grimsby seat specific polling. That is why I have reduced the tactical voting for Labour by BXP supporters to zero, even though many BXP supporters are ex-Labour. My model still show… (View Post)

I'm so sorry! You are right. I'm looking at next government. In theory the odds on Tory majority should be same and they nearly are. My basic point was the odds were lengthening slightly. M… (View Post)