Barnesian
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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s Choice
Latest model predictions Con/Lab/LD 332/219/30 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing @alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead. The a… (View Post)2 -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing
By giving them a criminal record for smoking pot or taking E. (View Post)1 -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake
I've fixed the bug. It doesn't affect the seat totals but it does affect the shares in some constituencies. In Bermondsey it is now Con/Lab/LD 9/41/47. Still a LD gain but not a silly share… (View Post)1 -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB and the LDs slipping on the Commons seats spread markets –
I think UNS is fine for small changes in share. It's hopeless for large changes and clumping effects. I have an additive model (UNS) and a multiplicative model. If LibDem national share goes fro… (View Post)1 -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB and the LDs slipping on the Commons seats spread markets –
There are a lot of true blue sensible middle of the road Tories who feel the same way. (View Post)1