Agreed. It does. With an OR background my approach is to do a detailed model with explicit "reasonable" assumptions and then flex the assumptions to see which are the most sensitive and foc… (View Post)

An interesting article on Ireland and Brexit: https://www.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848 Ireland appears to be a role model for the Singaporean economy that Johnson's regime… (View Post)

I don't know whether this has already been said but surely the reason the Queen invariably accepts the advice of her first Minister is because he speaks for and has the confidence of Parliament.… (View Post)

Putting the Kantar poll into the EMA (to even out MOE and outliers) gives: Con 30% Lab 25% LD 18% BXP 14% Taking an average of Electoral Calculus and Flavible (which are converging in their predictio… (View Post)

I suspect that there was a majority support in parliament for May's deal subject to a referendum. But she never offered it. It wasn't available. It would have been a sensible move on her pa… (View Post)