I'm so sorry! You are right. I'm looking at next government. In theory the odds on Tory majority should be same and they nearly are. My basic point was the odds were lengthening slightly. M… (View Post)

Latest model predictions Con/Lab/LD 332/219/30 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing @alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead. The a… (View Post)

By giving them a criminal record for smoking pot or taking E. (View Post)

I've fixed the bug. It doesn't affect the seat totals but it does affect the shares in some constituencies. In Bermondsey it is now Con/Lab/LD 9/41/47. Still a LD gain but not a silly share… (View Post)

I think UNS is fine for small changes in share. It's hopeless for large changes and clumping effects. I have an additive model (UNS) and a multiplicative model. If LibDem national share goes fro… (View Post)